A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
